The Earth has experienced many glacial and interglacial periods over hundreds of thousands of years.  Since the last ice age, the Earth has warmed (the average global temperature has rising by some 4 to 5oC) but the temperature rise was about 0.1oC per century.  Today's warmer climate took 5,000–8,000 years to ‘evolve’, during which time the average global temperature rose at a rate of around 0.1oC every century.   This gradual change allowed trees to adapt to the changing climate.  In the last century, ‘we’ have driven a 1.3oC rise just in the last century - this is some ten times faster than the change post ice age.  [caption id="attachment_35526" align="alignleft" width="300"] drought[/caption] Not only has the climate warmed, it has become increasingly unpredictable with heat waves, drought and torrential rain.  These can have dramatic effects on our trees and heathlands.  For example, the heatwave in 2022 resulted in Kew Gardens losing some 460 of its trees.  This last summer saw 4 periods of heatwave conditions.   So, it is not surprising that some of our most familiar trees are struggling with these changed conditions.  They are stressed, and it would seem that the climate is not likely to moderate in the immediate future.  In recognition of the changing climate, Forestry England has produced a 'species for the future' list.  The trees in the list are those which might thrive in a warmer climate. Whilst it includes familiar species like oak, birch, and alder, other species such as the coast redwood and Corsican pine are included,  which hopefully will create more resilient woodlands.  The trees are listed below Aspen (Populus tremula) Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Common alder (Alnus glutinosa) Corsican pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) Downy birch (Betula pubescens) European silver fir (Abies alba) Field maple (Acer campestre) Grand fir (Abies grandis) Grey alder (Alnus incana) Hornbeam (Carpinus betulus) Japanese red cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) Macedonian pine (Pinus peuce) Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) Norway spruce (Picea abies) Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) Red oak (Quercus rubra) Rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) Sessile oak (Quercus petraea) Silver birch (Betula pendula) Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) Sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa) Sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus) Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) Western red cedar (Thuja plicata) Wild cherry (Prunus avium) Wild service tree (Sorbus torminalis) The list contains both native and non-native species, the aim is to create through planting stronger and more biodiverse woodlands that can tolerate our changing climate over the coming decades.  The rate of climate change is the main issue. Whilst some of the trees already grow here, others come come from warmer / drier areas, such as the Mediterranean or  North America.  There are already many redwoods in the UK.  They were introduced in victorian times, when they were planted on the estates of the wealthy and landed gentry. There are now probably more redwoods in the UK than in their native Pacific Coast range,  there intense heat and dry weather has exposed them to intense forest fires. Another possibility to promote resilience is to use seed produced by trees such as Oak that has been ‘produced’ by trees growing in warmer regions. The inclusion of trees that might be suited to our changing climate is often referred to as assisted migration.  However, the introduction of non-native species is not without its problems, for example the introduced species could become of invasive or add to the burden of pathogens that our trees are exposed too.

Forests across Europe occupy some 40% of the land area, and until recently they were regarded as not only a source of timber but also an important ’sink’ of carbon.  That is to say, they took in more carbon dioxide in photosynthesis (and stored it away in complex organic compounds) than they released in respiration. However, in recent times, these important biomes have turned from carbon sink to carbon source.  This year, the Finnish forests changed from sink to source.  Forests in the Czech Republic and Germany also released more carbon than they absorbed.  Though French forests are still a sink, their absorption of carbon dioxide has roughly halved in recent years (from 74 million tonnes of CO2 to 37.8 million tonnes in 2022).   Norway has seen a similar reduction in carbon dioxide storage from 32 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes. Seemingly, forests across the continent are losing the ability to act as carbon sinks, but why?  One reason seems to be the increased harvesting of timber,  many forests are privately owned and run on a commercial basis.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a factor as sanctions against Russian timber has lead to more ‘domestic’ culling, for example in Finland.  However, climate change is an important factor in this downturn.  In recent times, droughts (in 2018 and 2022) have had a significant effect of forests, trees are stressed and the effects of drought have been greater than anticipated.  Drought can also be coupled with other extreme weather events (such as storm damage) and outbreaks of bark beetle (which have particularly affected spruce woodlands).  The Czech Republic has reported several outbreaks of bark beetle in recent times. What can be done to mitigate this loss of carbon sinks? Clearly reducing the harvesting of trees for timber and the banning of clear felling would help.  After a clear cut in a boreal or temperate region, it can take a forest 10 to 15 years to become a sink again, and even longer for the original emissions associated with the clear cut to be compensated for. Increasing the diversity and resilience of trees used in forestry is another approach to increasing CO2 absorption, however, it would take some time to determine which trees would be most effective in creating a carbon sink in the face of climate change.  Sadly, it is also the case that many tropical forests are in decline in terms of carbon storage due to deforestation,  expansion of agriculture and fires. Further reading : https://forest.eea.europa.eu/topics/forest-and-climate/carbon-sinks-and-sources  

In the southern parts of Britain, beech is a dominant woodland/forest tree, further north, oak is prominent.  Beech trees are often large with smooth, silvery grey bark.  They can grow to a height of 150 feet, with a stout trunk (perhaps 10 feet in diameter) and an impressive canopy. The leaves, certainly on younger trees, may persist throughout winter in a brown and withered state — a phenomenon known as marcescence.  The root system of the beech is shallow but extensive.  The large roots spread out in all directions, and establish mycorrhizal connections, often with fungi such as Russula and Laccaria.  The mycorrhizae help the trees by supplying mineral nutrients (like phosphate) and water.  In return, the trees provide various organic nutrients to the fungus. Despite these associations, beech trees are susceptible to drought.  After the drought of the summer of 1976, many beech trees died. It is not surprising that people are concerned about the ‘health’ of beech trees in light of climate change — higher temperatures, extreme weather,  specifically periods of drought.  It was thought that climate change would reduce growth of trees like beech through the increasing frequency and intensity of summer droughts. Recently, a study conducted by researchers at the University of Liverpool looked at tree growth data (annual growth ring and masting data) accumulated over more than forty  years and found that growth was indeed reduced (by some 28%).   However, the reason was that the trees were investing more energy into reproduction than into growth.  Beech trees are known for their mast years - see previous blog on masting. In a mast year, a tree will produce enormous quantities of seeds (beech nuts✝︎). However, it seems that the changing climate is causing a ‘breakdown’ in the masting process, and whilst the trees now reproduce more more frequently.  Total seed production and seed viability is reduced.   It may be that the diminished reproductive capacity of beech trees as a result of climate change will affect their ability to regenerate woodlands and forests in the UK and indeed across Europe in the coming years.   [caption id="attachment_41997" align="aligncenter" width="675"] Marcescence[/caption] ✝︎ Masting means that so many seeds that even the most voracious squirrels cannot consume all of them * After the summer of 1976, drought damaged trees were still dying some 15 years later.

Loss of nitrogen fixing species. Some plants can ‘fix’ atmospheric nitrogen.  That is they can take nitrogen from the air and use it to make complex nitrogen-containing organic compounds (such as amino acids / proteins).  This fixation of nitrogen is due to the presence of symbiotic bacteria in root nodules.  Gardeners often make use of ‘nitrogen fixers’, such clover, peas and beans to augment soil fertility. A recent study has investigated the changes in the makeup of the flora in European forests (over several decades) from 1940 to 2019.  What they found was that the proportion of nitrogen fixing plants has declined.  The changes did not seem correspond to any changes in temperature  or aridity / rainfall during the time period, but to nitrogen accumulation in the environment.  When nitrogen levels are low, nitrogen fixing plants have an advantage, but when nitrogen levels increase their advantage over other plants is lost. Nitrogen compounds in the soil can result from the intensive use of fertilisers on nearby agricultural land or atmospheric deposition of various pollutants.  Nitrogen levels have increased tenfold since the start date of the surveys.  This loss of nitrogen fixing plants might, in the long term, result in a loss of ecosystem resilience. For further info - visit https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adp7953 The great green wall project. There are a number of large scale tree planting projects, many associated with offsetting global warming.  The great green wall aims to grow a belt of trees some 8000 km in length, and 15 km wide in the Sahara.  The planned route supported trees in the past.  The aim is to ‘stabilise’ the desert, limiting further expansion into the Sahel, as the tree roots help to stabilise the soil, limiting erosion.  Desertification is associated with drought and overgrazing.  The idea of such a barrier was taken up and approved by countries south of the Sahara in 2002, during a special summit.  The trees selected are drought resistant species, that also serve to fertilise the soil and contribute fruits, fodder and fuel wood for local communities. Though millions of trees have been planted, the project needs more funding if it is to succeed. Further details about the great green wall can be found here and here. Dealing with drought ? [caption id="attachment_35526" align="alignleft" width="300"] drought[/caption] Drought is a problem not only for woodlands but also for crops, resulting in substantial food loss across the globe.  The damage to crops is likely to increase as fresh water availability declines.  During drought, the availability of water in the topsoil decreases, leaving water only accessible in the  deeper subsoil.  Plants seek water through their roots and whilst roots generally grow downwards, they also tend to spread outwards to form a network. So, if the roots are mainly located in the upper layer of the soil, they may not be able to absorb water as the soil dries.   Now, research at the University of Nottingham has found that the plant growth regulator abscisic acid plays a critical role in a plant’s response to drought.  The abscisic acid  promotes the production of another growth regulator - auxin.  The two enhance the plant’s geotropic response* - so that the roots permeate deeper into the soil in search of water. Full details in the research paper here : https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960982224016439?dgcid=coauthor * Geotropism is a plant’s response to gravity.

Since its formation, the earth has undergone change.  Life forms have come and gone.  There have been five major extinctions, the last being at the end of the Cretaceous Period; it killed off the dinosaurs and many other species.  This particular extinction event is thought to have been particularly rapid, due to an asteroid impact.  It caused a series of cataclysmic events and a rapid cooling of the Earth’s climate. Other changes, such as intense volcanic activity and tectonic uplift, may have pre-dated the asteroid impact but the event saw the elimination of many, many life forms. We are witnessing significant global change, that is also rapid in geological terms. Changes in the Earth’s climate and species composition usually take place over millennia, indeed over millions of years.  However, recent years have been very warm.  Global temperatures have changed noticeably. The warming that has been recorded “is exceptional relative to any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago”.  This warming has resulted in extreme and severe weather events in this country and across the world.  This year a record breaking January temperature of 19.9oC was recorded at Achfary, with storms Henk, Isha, and Jocelyn in the same month. The Earth’s warmest year on record (between 1850 to 2023) was 2023.  In early September 2023, the UK experienced a significant heatwave when daily maximum temperatures exceeded 30°C [somewhere in the UK] for seven consecutive days. [caption id="attachment_35526" align="aligncenter" width="675"] Drought![/caption] Such changes are not without effect. Phenology observations indicate that trees are producing their leaves earlier, woodland plants are coming into flower earlier. See the woodlands blog “Spring is on the move”.  A concern with these changing phenologies is that ‘mismatches’ can occur.  When trees come into leaf determines when caterpillars can feed and that, in turn, affects when birds can feed on the caterpillars and raise their young.  If these events do not occur in synchrony then the ‘functioning of the ecosystem’ is disturbed.  [caption id="attachment_25123" align="alignleft" width="300"] Leaf 'unfolding'[/caption] The agricultural and horticultural ecosystems that we have created are also affected by climate change. This year, heavy rainfall has meant that farmers in many parts of the UK have been unable to plant certain crops [such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables] during the key spring months. Some crops have rotted in the soil. In April, there was 111.4mm of rain, [the average for April is 71.9mm]; the sixth wettest April of the last 189 years.  Persistent wet weather also affects lambing, and can mean it is not possible to turn dairy cattle out onto grass / pasture, which in turn affects milk production. Monthly temperatures are more likely to be above average than below as climate change take effect.  This was true for the first three months of the year.  Warmer air holds more moisture and it can evaporate more water from the seas / oceans. A one degree (Celsius) rise in temperature adds 7% more moisture in the air.  Woodlands are affected by heavy rain as soil becomes waterlogged, which affects woodland flowers, and wet winters do no favours for animals that hibernate. The UK is not the only place to be affected by extremes of weather, be it rainfall and flooding, or high temperatures and drought.  India has recently experienced a period of extreme temperature, with temperatures approaching 50oC.  Such temperatures push human physiology to its limits.  Just as extreme rain is a problem for farmers, so is extreme heat and / or drought.  Brazil has been the main exporter of oranges for producing orange juice, but its recent crop has been substantially reduced as a result of flooding and drought; resulting in the worst harvest in decades. Spanish orange production has also been reduced due to drought. Like California, large parts of Florida ‘the Sunshine State’’ has seen its once-famous citrus industry reduced over the past two decades. Two diseases, greening and citrus canker have taken their toll, and then Hurricane Ian in September 2023, hit the citrus industry at the beginning of its growing season.  Large parts of the one famous citrus industry (oranges and grapefruit) have been lost and farmers are turning to the PONGAMIA tree to repurpose fallow land. [caption id="attachment_41381" align="alignleft" width="650"] Pongamia  : image thanks to Sarangib on Pixabay[/caption] This is a climate-resilient tree from India. They do not need fertiliser or pesticides.   It has been grown as a shade tree. As a member of the Fabaceae, it produces small, brown beans.  These are so bitter than not even wild hogs will eat them.  However, the beans are easily harvested by a machine that shakes the tree.  A San Francisco based company has found a way to remove the bitter tasting chemicals and use the beans in food production, as they yield a high quality protein and also an oil.  The bean (a legume) has been used to make a table oil, protein bars and a biofuel.   Orange juice production is not the only drink to be affected by changing climate.  Drought affects coffee plants and damages the quality of the soil, and excessive rainfall ‘favours’ fungal disease [e.g.coffee leaf rust and cherry rot], all of which will impact the yield and quality of the beans harvested.  Similarly, chocolate production is threatened. Cacao trees are impacted by global warming,  they can only grow and thrive within 10 degrees of the Equator, needing stable temperatures, high humidity, and ample rain.  However, temperatures are rising while rainfall has decreased. These changes lower the humidity. The trees are also under attack by a virus - cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD). Changing temperatures and rainfall patterns will influence what crops can be grown and where, it will also influence their cultivation and the working patterns associated with those crops.  Climate change is thus a factor contributing to food inflation and insecurity across the world.    

There are eleven thousand trees in Kew Gardens.  Each year, a few trees are lost due to natural causes, old age, disease etc.   In 2002, a drought resulted in the loss of  some 400 trees.  Such a prolonged dry spell is  likely to occur again and again as global temperatures rise, and climate change takes a hold. Modelling of future climate scenarios by Kew scientists suggests that towards the end of this century between a third and a half of Kew’s trees could be lost.  Trees like the English oak, beech, birch and holly could be vulnerable to warmer temperatures and extended dry spells.  There is a plan at Kew to replace gradually trees with species currently found in warmer areas, such the Mediterranean, Asia and Central America. Examples might include species such as the iberian alder, cherry hackberry and Montezuma’s pine.  Many of the plants in the gardens will survive, [including Kew’s ‘Old Lions’] as they were collected from in and around the Mediterranean; some of these date back to the victorian era or earlier. The ‘old lions’ of Kew are trees from the original grounds / garden that still survive. Examples include : Japanese pagoda tree (Styphnolobium japonica) Maidenhair tree (Ginkgo biloba) Oriental plane (Platanus orientalis) Caucasian elm (Zelkova carpinifolia) Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) The Caucasian elm dates from 1762, when an arboretum was planted.  It is thought that it might have been in a batch of plants from the Caucasus, planted in what is now the herbarium paddock.  In 1905, the height of the tree was recorded as 60 feet (18M), though they can grow to 100 feet.  A larger caucasian elm can be seen at  Tortworth. One species of oak that is common at Kew is the holly or holm oak (Quercus ilex).  This is a common, naturalised oak that was probably introduced into the country in the sixteenth century.  It is a hardy, slow growing tree and many new holm oaks were planted in 2008 to redefine the Syon Vista.  The wood of the tree is strong and, in the past, it was used in carts and farming equipment. Its acorns start off green in colour but turn a reddish brown; they are a tasty treat for pigs. The threat to Kew's trees is not unique, parks and urban spaces across the country need to plan for the future, to ensure that their trees can offer some resilience to changing weather patterns. Full details of Kew's planning here.  

Forests, woodlands, trees are vital to life.  They absorb carbon dioxide, they release oxygen, they offer food and shelter to countless species (including us).  The global forests (equatorial to boreal) play an important role in mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel emissions.  However, many forests and their particular tree species are being  threatened by the world’s warming climate.  Recent years have seen catastrophic fires in many parts of the world, from Canada, Siberia, Sweden to Australia. In 2019/20, intense fires caused extensive damage to the Eucalypt forests in Australia.  Eucalypt rich woodland / forest is likely candidate for fire because the leaves of Eucalypts produce volatile and highly combustible oils.  The litter underneath such trees is rich in organic compounds such as phenols, which slow down the microbial breakdown of the dead leaves.   Consequently,  a layer of dry, eminently burnable material builds up. In Eastern Australia, some 40+% of the native eucalypt forests suffered severe canopy damage.   Trees on the west coast of America have also been subject to intense fires.  Their susceptibility to fire has been accentuated by drought across the region.  Analysis of the growth rings of trees, such as the Red Cedar (in areas such as Oregon) show that trees suffered reduced growth in the years prior to their death.  Drought stress increases the probability of attack by bark beetles and pathogens.  In California, many native species such as white fir, red fir and ponderosa pine have died and provided material for the fires that were to follow.  Fires in 2020/21 swept across the region, destroying vast swathes of forest.  The fires were of such an intensity that even Giant Sequoias were killed.   [caption id="attachment_40596" align="aligncenter" width="675"] Forest Fire in Canada[/caption] Sequoias had been thought ‘indestructible’ as they have a thick bark, which protects the inner living tissue, plus their canopy is usually well above the flames on the forest floor.  In the past, the fires burned litter on the ground, removing competitors, and releasing nutrients.  The heat would also open up the cones of the Sequoias releasing their seeds, so young trees could establish. Some of the Sequoias that died in these recent fires had stood for centuries and survived many wildfires.   In the past, the amount of litter / dead material was limited.  Indigenous people managed these forests (reducing the fuel load) to create forage for game animals, so that wildfires were of mild to moderate intensity.  Now, the fires are different - they are intense. There is more material to burn - including the trees that have already died from drought and disease. The fires can now reach into the canopies of the Sequoias. One of the Sequoias that died was the King Arthur tree - the 8th largest giant redwood in the world; it died in the Castle Fire of 2020. The drought driven deaths of many tree species is probably the start of a longer lasting shift in the growing range of the affected trees.  Temperature and water availability are two of the major determinants of the range of a given species.  It is possible that trees may ‘move’ northward and upward (grow at higher elevations).  Trees will begin to ‘die off’ at the edge of their range / lower elevations as drought / warming increases.  Die offs may also affect commercial plantations of species such as Douglas fir.

A lot of research work now focuses on the resilience of woodlands and forests in the light of climate change, that is their ability to cope with conditions like drier, hotter summers and/or  warmer/wetter winters. It has generally been assumed that trees at the limit of their range in dry regions would be most affected by climate change (with rising temperatures and less water).  However, a major study of some six million tree annual ring samples, (involving 120+ species) coupled with analysis of historical climate data has shown that trees in drier regions show a certain resilience to drought.  Trees seemingly become less sensitive to drought as they approach the edge of their range.  Trees in wetter climates are less resilient when they experience drier conditions or drought.  It seems probable that many species in wetter woodland and forest ecosystems will face significant challenges if the climate does move to a drier and warmer state. Assisted migration may be needed.  One idea is to ‘exploit’ the genetic diversity found at the edge of a species range.  The slow natural migration of trees may not be able to keep pace with the speed of climate change. Full details of this study by the University of California can be found here : Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change The effects of climate change have become very clear in recent times.  This last year witnessed:- Record breaking wild fires in Canada, with the smoke extending across to the East coast of the States. [caption id="attachment_40597" align="aligncenter" width="675"] Canadian forest fire[/caption] Heat waves in parts of America , for example, Phoenix (Arizona) suffers the best part of a month with temperatures of 43oC. Parts of the North Atlantic Ocean saw unprecedented temperatures The global temperature in July was 1.5oC above the pre-industrial average, September saw temperatures 1.8oC above the pre-industrial average. Parts of Chile and Argentina saw a ‘heatwave’ in the middle of their winter. It is clear that ‘unchartered waters’ lie ahead.